Nick Dow's blog : How to predict a result of football match
Betting randomly,
based on your own opinion about the teams, the names and odds of the bookmakers
is a direct path to failure. The primary task of each player is to exclude
bets without preliminary total analysis. We will analyze in detail how to
analyze football matches for betting. At the same time, we remind you that
it is necessary to keep detailed statistics of your own bets and regularly
analyze the causes of errors, the number of wins by tournaments and types of
bets.
Situational
analysis
Preliminary
estimates of the results, marks and analysis of the coefficients should be
carried out immediately after the appearance of the line. But directly to
the analysis of the match you need to start on the day of the game, 10-12 hours
before it starts, when most of the necessary information is available.
For
the convenience of analysis, it is necessary to pre-compile the necessary
database of statistical and information sites where you can find the
information of interest. We advise you to add useful sites to your browser
bookmarks, regularly replenish and update the collection. The more
information to think about, the better.
You
should not be scattered and try to cover all the football matches in the world
and always use football accumulator
tips. For an experienced player, a quick glance at the calendar of
events is enough to identify matches that are interesting for betting. For
beginners, we advise you to select a couple of interesting tournaments for
yourself and focus on them. The number of bets can be different - there is
no consensus here. For a more detailed analysis, we recommend stopping at
five matches a day, this is quite enough for a systematic replenishment of the
bank.
Components
of analysis
Having
chosen the required number of matches, we proceed directly to the analysis, dividing
it into several stages:
1.
The
current position of the teams in the table and tournament motivation. Who
is higher in the table and who needs points more? These are different
concepts. It happens that the current outsider needs points more than the
leader, so you need to watch carefully.
2.
Command
form. The standard score is based on the last five
matches. If a club has 4 wins and a draw, then it is obvious that it is on
the move. However, do not forget to evaluate the strength of the opponents
and the status of these matches. Separately, it is worth evaluating the
overall statistics of home and away games for the hosts and guests,
respectively.
3.
Head-to-head
meetings of rivals. Undoubtedly an important
indicator that can give food for thought, but do not forget that in modern
football in two or three years the composition of the players and the coaching
staff can change a little less than completely. Therefore, it is worth
taking into account only matches between themselves for the last two or three
seasons.
4.
Games
with leaders, middle peasants and outsiders. A
controversial point, which, nevertheless, should be taken into account when
meeting teams from different parts of the table. There are teams that
consistently play well with leaders and not so well with mediocre teams. A
vivid example is Liverpool of the 2016-2017 season.
5.
Bookmaker
spreads. You should not unconditionally
believe the bookmakers, but you cannot ignore the initial odds and the movement
of the line. There are many services that will show you in detail how the
odds in the line changed as the match approached. In addition, this
indicator must be taken into account in order to compare your own opinion with
the set coefficient. If, as a result of the analysis of the match, you
came to the conclusion that the guests should win today, and the odds for their
win are 4.65, do not hesitate. The coefficient may not work, but if its
value is higher than the probability, then bet safely.
6.
Lineup
losses. Injuries, suspensions, transfers,
calls to the national team, personal problems - players can not take part in
the match for a number of reasons. And this will certainly affect the
course and outcome of the meeting. The lack of leaders can force a team to
change tactics.
7.
The
relationship between clubs and fans. Principal
rivals or best friends - there is a difference. History knows many cases
when friendly clubs helped each other with points in head-to-head meetings. You
should pay attention to meetings of principal rivals because of bets on yellow
and red cards. Removal in the match "Milan" - "Inter"
will not surprise anyone.
8.
Statistical
indicators. There
are a lot of statistical calculations and it is simply necessary to work with
them carefully for the correct analysis of sports matches. Statistics can
say a lot. Looking at the last matches of the teams, pay attention to
their statistics - the number of dangerous attacks, the percentage of ball
possession, shots on goal and on target, the number of corners, yellow cards
and fouls, the time when teams score the most goals. For cup matches,
information about players who are at risk of disqualification is relevant.
9.
Match
referee and his statistics. The
referee is the main one on the field, so you should pay attention to his
statistics of warnings and removals, the results of the teams during his
refereeing.
10.
Weather
conditions and field conditions. If heavy
rain is expected in the city with a thunderstorm, and the stadium is not
equipped with a roof, the teams are unlikely to be able to show effective
football.
11.
Statistical
Series. Rostov lost
only one match at home in all competitions in two years, Igor Akinfeev missed
in the Champions League for 43 matches in a row, and Benfica lost eight
European Cup finals in a row - the series gives some food for thought.
Total
analysis does not guarantee that the bet will pass, but it will help to weed
out bets on a whim and evaluate your strength as an analyst. Do not
despair in case of loss, defeat is an occasion to work on mistakes. Carefully
study what and why prevented your prediction from coming true. If this
repeats from time to time, make adjustments to the analysis system.