Clarence Wilkins's blog : My Showdown with a Poker-Playing Machine

My Showdown with a Poker-Playing Machine

Okay, so there's this guy, Doug Polk, right? Dude's a beast at poker, especially at those one-on-one Texas Hold Em No Limit games. He's racked up millions in winnings. Now, get this, him and his team went toe-to-toe with a poker-bot cooked up by some brainy MIT students...and they won!

When Doug's not busy cleaning up at the poker tables, he's teamed up with Ryan Fee, another poker shark, running this cool site called Upswing Poker. They're all about teaching regular folks how to up their poker game understanding.

Now, with Wall Street being pretty much a playground for computer programs these days, I thought Doug might have some killer insights on facing off with AI, you know, for the few humans still playing that trading game by gut.

John Navin: You've been in the ring with an AI poker bot, man. How's that feel?

Doug Polk: Man, squaring off with an AI? It's freaky. It's like every move is calculated to precision, way beyond what us mere mortals can do. You catch on quick that it ain't no regular Joe across the table – it's a whole different ball game.

See, we humans, we have a couple of go-to bet sizes in our playbook. But a computer? It's got a whole arsenal. When you see the crazy variety popping up, it messes with you because you're left guessing what's coming next.

Navin: In your play-by-play, you mentioned the AI taking these ""thinking"" breaks. Kinda like those weird stock market moves, right? Break it down for us, will ya?

Polk: Yeah, it's got this routine, right? Every hand, once the turn card hits the table, it's pause time. Half the hand's history, half's a mystery. That's when the bot's crunching numbers, playing out every possible move cnn in its silicon brain, so regardless of what I throw at it, it's ready.

That thing processes scenarios like nobody's business, way faster than us humans who just play the odds.

Navin: You've talked about AI solving some poker games. But no limit? That's a different beast, ain't it?

Polk: Oh, totally. Let me clear it up – it's limit hold'em that AI's got on lockdown, not pot limit. Limit's like playing with training wheels – you bet or you don't, but it's always the same amount. No limit? That's the Wild West, baby. You can push in a dollar or go all in with everything you've got cbc.

It's a whole different monster, so complex that we're not even close to cracking it. There are more combinations than stars in the sky. Plus, the AI's gotta figure out the why behind every size of bet. It can throw around all the bet sizes it wants, but it doesn't get the art of no limit – the freedom to bet big or go home.

Navin: After you guys wrapped up with more chips, the bot's creators called it a ""statistical tie."" Sounds like they're not giving you full credit. Thoughts?

Polk: Gotta admit, that rubbed me the wrong way. I've said before that AI's gonna outpace us eventually, and sure enough, it's happening. But the way they spun it to the press? Made it sound like we barely scraped by.

We didn't smash the statistical significance benchmark, but we were darn close. And the truth is, we owned that match, day in and day out.

I get that universities gotta hustle for funds, but downplaying our win felt like a slap in the face.

Navin: So, about those gut feels and poker faces – still a thing in no limit?

Polk: Oh, for sure – if you're playing against someone who's not up to snuff. Top-tier players are hip to physical tells, so they keep it consistent, no giveaways. I'm all about the numbers, but if you can read people? You'll be minting cash from the newbies.

But as the game gets tougher, that stuff's fading out. Legends like Ivey and Hellmuth, they're known for their read game, but the new blood? They're too savvy for those old-school tricks.

Navin: Having duked it out with AI and come out on top, any pro tips for traders squaring off with automated brains?

Polk: Here's the skinny – the AI couldn't quite grok our bet sizes. It had to adjust them to something it could compute. So my advice? Zig when it expects you to zag. Find the blind spots in its playbook and exploit them. Get it to make moves that seem right to it but are actually off because it misread your play bbc.

This might mean a lot of trial and error. And sure, AI's getting sharper by the minute. But at the end of the day, it can't read a one-off situation with human savvy, and that's where you've gotta carve out your edge.

Navin: There's a new showdown with Carnegie Mellon's AI. What's your take, now that the machines are pulling ahead?

Polk: It's over, and the humans got spanked – the bot beat us way worse than we ever did it. Figured it was only a matter of time, but it still stings a bit. Tech's got that snowball effect, y'know?

This round, the AI patched up its game, coming in hot with those big-money bets that really put the screws to us flesh-and-blood types.